Some bold predictions for 2012

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01/02/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The turn of the calendar brings so much promise.

New Year's resolutions are made and two weeks later, gyms will be back to normal attendance rates. Cigarette sales will return to averages and people will abandon any notions of improvement.

Is it cynical? Of course, but statistics bear out the positions. Personal experience accounts for some of those beliefs as well, but January is also a time for fearless predictions of the year to come.

So here are some thoughts on what we might see for 2012.

- Tiger Woods will win again, but not a major championship.

His victory at the Chevron World Challenge was something, but not a firm indicator he is back. If we take Woods at his word that injuries more than anything accounted for a down 2011, then he should have a productive 2012.

Woods will be two full years removed from the scandal and the more time that passes on that front, the better. He got that winning taste back in his mouth and that could lead to the old feelings.

No matter what, it's naive to think Woods would never win on tour again after the car accident. Why not 2012? He's indicated he will play at least one event he normally didn't, so it seems he's at least mildly interested in teeing it up more often.

- Yani Tseng makes a serious push for the single-season Grand Slam.

She is so clearly the best player in the world and dominance has run rampant on the LPGA Tour since 2000. First, Annika was unbeatable, then it was Lorena, and now it's Yani.

Both Sorenstam and Ochoa failed to threaten that single-season Slam, but if you can believe this, neither was as good a closer in majors as is Tseng already.

She only needs the Women's British Open for the career slam, and, she'll be 23 in mid-January. Tseng should still be carded in a state store, but she's so far ahead of the pace of her contemporaries, it's comical.

Tseng won two majors in 2011, but probably should've had a third. She didn't contend at the U.S. Women's Open. The chance at immortality could be too much to overcome, but Tseng's competition isn't as strong as Annika's or Lorena's. Cristie Kerr, Jiyai Shin and Ai Miyazato all regressed to some degree in 2011.

- The U.S. wins the Ryder Cup, then David Toms and Paul McGinley get the 2014 captaincies.

- The PGA Tour explores ways to get the season-opener out of Hawaii because attendance at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions is worse than Senior Cut Day. (It won't work.)

- No one gets suspended for failing a drug test.

- Jason Kokrak is your next PGA Tour star from the Nationwide Tour.

- Lexi Thompson struggles as a member of the LPGA Tour. Remember, she can't vote yet, so a full season of pressure like that will wear on her.

- The FedExCup playoffs will be better thanks to the additions of Bethpage and Crooked Stick to the rotation.

- The No. 1 player at the end of 2012 will be Lee Westwood, who wins the British Open.

- Pace of play in young golfers doesn't improve and my health is jeopardized becoming angry about it.

- Fred Couples dominates the Champions Tour without having to worry about the Presidents Cup captaincy. As a bonus prediction, Couples' name gets kicked around for '14 Ryder Cup gig, but he's dubbed "too old."

- He and Nick Price are the 2013 Presidents Cup captains.

- Phil Mickelson gets twitter and bores us to death with it.

- Rory McIlroy struggles a bit in 2012 after enormous expectations and celebrity status.

- People continue to complain about long putters, but nothing happens because they are completely legal and that will never change.

- Major winners - Masters (Adam Scott), U.S. Open at Olympic (Steve Stricker), British Open Championship at Royal Lytham & St. Annes (Westwood) and PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (Alvaro Quiros).

For now, the crystal ball gets put away with the Christmas ornaments.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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